How South Carolina’s population has changed since 2020 and what it could mean for the election

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) — South Carolina’s demographics are changing as the state experiences a population boom, raising questions about how a shifting electorate could impact the 2024 election.

The Palmetto State’s population is estimated to have grown by more than a quarter of a million people since 2020, bringing the state’s total population to more than 5.3 million residents.

It also ranked as the fastest-growing state in the nation last year, according to U.S. Census data.

People are moving the most from neighboring Georgia and North Carolina, which are more politically divided states. New York and California, traditionally blue states, are next on the list.

Despite the influx, fewer people are registered to vote than in 2020, and the newcomers who have registered are disproportionately Republican — though South Carolina does not require registration by political party.

Estimates from L2, a nonpartisan source for voter data, show that about 62.2% of people who have moved to South Carolina since January 2020 are Republicans, while about 30.7% are Democrats. The remaining 7% of newly registered voters are classified as nonpartisan.

“Certainly at the national level, at a presidential level, I don’t think it’s going to have much of an effect at all given how deeply Republican the state of South Carolina is,” said Kirk Randazzo, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina.

He noted that South Carolina has been able to remain a GOP stronghold as much of the growth is centered around ruby-red areas, many of which, like Spartanburg County, double as manufacturing hubs.

“Not only are these Republican-heavy areas, but folks are just moving where the jobs are,” Randazzo said.

At the same time, the state is seeing population declines in more rural parts of the state, primarily in the Pee Dee region in places like Darlington, Dillon, Chesterfield, Clarendon, Florence, Marion, Marlboro, and Williamsburg counties.

The South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office estimates that the population in these counties will decline by an average of 22% by 2042.

Most of these areas, with the expectation of Chesterfield County, tend to lean more Democratic or have a closer partisan split, according to an analysis of recent election results.

“I think what we’re seeing in South Carolina is that as far as democratic clustering is concerned, it is centered primarily around Columbia and around Charleston and that makes sense given, say, the universities that are there, the arts communities that are there,” Randazzo said.

However, recent election results show that Democrats’ margins of victories in rural counties are shrinking overall.

In Williamsburg County, for example, Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump by nearly 34 points in 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the county by only about 20 points.

Republicans have also made gains in rural areas, such as Florence County where McMaster’s margin of victory increased from less than a point in 2018 to nearly 11 points in 2022.

Two counties — Clarendon and Dillon — saw voters back a Democrat in the 2018 gubernatorial and 2020 presidential elections, but support a Republican in 2020 and 2022.

“As far as the rural areas are concerned, those are increasingly becoming more Republican in nature, and I don’t see any of those trends changing in the near future.”

Population declines are also happening in counties with the largest share of Black residents where the number of non-White registered voters is greater than the number of White registered voters. These include Bamberg, Allendale, Hampton, Lee, Orangeburg, and Richland counties — all solidly blue counties.

In 2020, Black voters comprised approximately 60% of South Carolina’s Democratic electorate. And while polls suggest Donald Trump and the Republican Party have made some inroads with Black voters, the vast majority are still reliable Democratic voters.

“As far as the nation is concerned, African Americans predominantly vote Democratic, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon,” Randazzo said.

“You see especially among Black men maybe less enthusiastic support for Kamala Harris but even there, it’s still overwhelmingly in favor of the Harris campaign and Democrats in general,” he continued. “And a lot of that has to do with rhetoric from Donald Trump and the Republican Party.”

South Carolina has also seen a shift in the average age of people moving to the state as a growing number of retirees flock south in search of warmer weather and lower taxes.

The South Carolina Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office projects that the growth of the 65 and older population is expected to be twice that of the 18 to 64 population by 2030.

But, the state’s lower cost of living and aforementioned job opportunities are also attracting many young people.

These trends are evidenced by changes in voter registration between 2020 and 2024. Both the 25 to 44 age group and the 65 and older age group saw registration increases during that period.

Whether that has any electoral impact, however, will primarily depend on turnout, Randazzo suggested.

“The 65 and older crowd is much more reliable in terms of showing up to vote, whether they do early voting or absentee or curbside voting if it’s available,” he said. “And the younger demographic tends to not show up, especially if there are obstacles or inconveniences that kind of stand in the way of casting their vote. So even though that’s a large demographic — and nationally is trending larger — they also tend to be the most unreliable in terms of actually voting.”

As for races further down the ballot, including the U.S. House and the South Carolina legislature, Randazzo does not expect a major electoral shift to happen there either.

“I don’t see the demographics having a major impact on control of the State House,” Randazzo said. “It may flip a set or two in some of the more competitive districts, but given the fact that Republicans have such a dominant presence among both the state House and the state Senate, I don’t see these population swings changing that really at all.”

Nearly 1 million people have already voted in South Carolina with days left to go in the early voting period, and both parties are pushing their base to turnout.

“Republicans are doing great in key areas all around the state, but we need you to go early vote if you haven’t done it yet,” South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick said in an Oct. 28 video on X (formerly Twitter). “…help us win for Republicans up and down the ballot all across this state and send Donald Trump back to the White House.”

“Voters are energized, engaged, and showing up in historic ways, which is exactly what we need for this pivotal election,” South Carolina Democratic Party Chairwoman Christale Spain said. “In these final days, I want to encourage everyone to make their voices heard by casting their ballot early if possible, or by voting on Election Day — and to remember to complete the entire ballot, voting down-ballot for Democrats.”

But, which party stands to benefit most from record-breaking turnout remains to be seen.

Early voting tends to “favor the Democrats” but Republicans are “doing better” this cycle, Randazzo explained. That could be in part due to a shift in rhetoric by GOP leaders, including Trump, who seem to have come around on the practice despite routinely criticizing it in the past.

“All states are seeing record numbers of people show up to vote early, and it’ll be very curious to see how those patterns play out as those votes get counted,” he added.

Early voting is available at various locations across the state through November 2.