Here are the reddest and bluest counties in South Carolina based on recent election results
CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD)– For decades, South Carolina has been dominated by Republicans.
It has remained a consistent, conservative beacon as other southern states, including neighboring Georgia and North Carolina, shift more toward toss-up status in both national and statewide elections.
South Carolina’s position as a GOP stronghold comes with good reason. Its residents have supported a Republican candidate for president in 13 of the last 14 presidential elections, with the sole exception of Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Republicans have a trifecta in the state, controlling the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the legislature. A Democrat has not held statewide office since 2006 when Jim Rex won the race to become Superintendent of Education.
Further, all but one of South Carolina’s seven congressional seats are currently occupied by a Republican. The exception is Congressman Jim Clyburn, a Democrat who has represented the 6th Congressional District since 1993.
But, the state has experienced rapid growth in recent years, adding more than half a million residents with many of these newcomers moving from traditionally blue states such as New York and California.
So, is the Palmetto State still as ruby red as it seems?
The margin between Democrats and Republicans has tightened slightly in presidential elections, according to recent election data.
When Donald Trump became president in 2016, he defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 14 points. In 2020, his margin of victory was nearly 12 points.
The margin in gubernatorial elections has moved in the opposite direction.
Henry McMaster beat Democrat James Smith by about 8 points in the 2018 gubernatorial election. He more than doubled his margin of victory in 2022, defeating Democrat Joe Cunningham by 17 points.
What are the reddest and bluest counties?
To determine the reddest and bluest counties in the state, WCBD calculated the average margin of victory in each county for the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections.
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The base of Republican support in recent elections is situated in the Upstate, particularly in the northwest corner of the state.
Pickens County — where Donald Trump held a massive rally in July 2023 — is the reddest county in the state, according to the data. The average margin of victory for Republicans in the past four election cycles was 50.13 percentage points.
Neighboring Oconee County had the second-highest average margin of victory for Republicans with 47.07 percentage points.
Republicans had average margins of victory greater than 30 percentage points in six other counties, including Abbeville, Anderson, Cherokee, Horry, Lexington, and Saluda.
Democrats’ base of support is located mostly in the Midlands, where a large portion of the state’s Black population lives. Some counties in the Lowcountry have also proved solidly Democratic areas.
Allendale County — the least populous county in the state — is the bluest county, according to recent election results. The average margin of victory for Democrats over the past four election cycles was 50.38 points.
Richland County, home to the state capital of Columbia, was next behind with Democratic candidates winning by an average of 36.55 points from 2016 to 2022.
Orangeburg County was the only other county where Democrats enjoyed a margin of at least 30 percentage points, but Bamberg and Williamsburg County are close behind.
What is the average margin in counties with the most registered voters?
Greenville County boasts the highest number of registered voters in the state with 352,577, according to data from the South Carolina Election Commission. Republican candidates there win on average by 20.53 percentage points.
In Horry County, which has 276,260 registered voters, Republicans win on average by 35.12 percentage points.
Charleston County, home to 275,897 registered voters, has leaned blue over the past four election cycles, averaging a 12-point margin for Democrats.
Which counties have the closest margins?
Four counties in South Carolina have been decided by an average of less than 5 points since 2016.
Jasper County, which neighbors Hilton Head Island and is the southernmost county in the state, has been the closest county, giving Democrats an average margin of victory of just 0.23 percentage points. The county went for the Democratic candidate in 2016, 2018, and 2020 but Republican governor Henry McMaster carried it by 13.57 percentage points in 2022.
The next closest is Clarendon County, located between Columbia and Charleston, which has given Republicans an average margin of victory of 1.31 percentage points. Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump there in 2016 by 2.24 points and James Smith won by 5.32 points over Henry McMaster in 2018. Republicans, however, came out on top in the following two elections.
Dillon County is another where Democrats and Republicans have split victory in the past four election cycles. It leans slightly red, with Republicans securing an average margin of 2.22 points.
Florence County, which sits slightly to the northwest of Horry County, saw the margin of victory shrink for Donald Trump from 4.94 percentage points in 2016 to 2.27 percentage points in 2020. Henry McMaster, however, saw his margin of victory increase greatly between 2018 and 2022 from 0.91 percentage points to 10.99 percentage points.
Five other counties have been decided by less than 10 percentage points.
